Petr Yan and Merab Dvalishvili's Rivalry

Merab Dvalishvili and Petr Yan are back. Again. Their trilogy fight is one of the best fights you can make in the sport right now and it’s this weekend! We’re going to go through their first two to show why each went the way they did and what both of them should look for this time.

A good fight is like a good story. They are extensions of specific moments of change. Both good fights and good stories possess instances in which what we thought would happen doesn’t, and what does happen expands our understanding of reality.

I don’t want to hear about your day where you woke up and went to work and then to the grocery store before picking up your girlfriend for a date where you end up ordering your favorite steak and have a night. That’s a boring story.

I want to hear about the time you slept through your alarm so you missed your train and you had to hitch a ride with a fisherman from Newfoundland who was going to drop you off after stopping off at his house to pick-up his backpack first, but when you go to his home he notices his roommate already accidentally took the backpack, so you get stuck on a wild goose chase all around the city looking for said roommate with said backpack so you can just go to work. That story has many moments of change. It sounds more interesting.

Similarly, watching one sided fights can be cool, but the ones that really stand out are the contests that dismantle our assumptions.

Nick Diaz wasn’t supposed to knockout Robbie Lawler.
Mark Hunt and Bigfoot weren’t supposed to land over 300 strikes on one another.
Justin Gaethje wasn’t supposed to finish Ilia Topuria, let alone after getting dropped.

Petr Yan wasn’t supposed to beat Merab Dvalishvili in their rematch because Merab shot a record 49 takedowns in their first fight. But Yan did and I want to see why.

What individual moments stood out in each of their previous 10 rounds and how did they coalesce to create the story of bantamweight’s most skilled rivalry?

The most important moment of the first round came around the 90 second mark. It wasn’t a takedown and it ruined the foundation of Yan’s defense for the next 21 minutes.

Merab is credited with landing 4 leg kicks in this round. They culminated in a hurt Yan and led directly to the most significant moment of the first fight.

Merab went back to his leg kicks in the second round. Then he score this strike after another 90 seconds of fighting.

Yan can fight southpaw. That does not mean he wants to be forced into that stance because he’s too hurt to stand orthodox. If he’s too hurt to choose the way to stand, he’s definitely not going to be able to push into his punches and kicks nor spring away from takedown attempts.

Round 3 was a confusing round if you only look at the statistics. Merab landed the least amount of strikes and had the lowest takedown percentage. However he accumulated more than 90 seconds of control time for the first time in the fight.

This round was the start of Merab climbing up Yan’s legs to get to a body lock. If you know anything about Merab, you know that’s where he starts to run away with his fights.

When Merab gets a body lock he can implement his trips, pull down on his opponents, and take time off the clock. He scores and saps his opponents’ strength. Body locks are critical for Merab’s long term game.

Yan is known as a cerebral fighter. The commentators of his fights say he “downloads” information about his opponents so he can hurt them later.

Yan had his second most accurate round of the fight in the fourth round so maybe that’s true. But Merab also landed his most significant strikes in this round. When Yan tried to get out of Merab’s clutches he found himself stuck on the losing end of the grappling exchanges.

Yan came out hot to try to steal the fight in the final round. He shot a takedown and kicked at Merab’s body to hurt him. But when Merab pressed Yan couldn’t answer back.

After 23 and a half minutes of fighting Yan’s body had failed him. Merab picked up a single leg and Yan couldn’t defend the takedowns anymore. He could hardly stand.

Everyone remembers that Merab shot a record 49 takedowns in this fight. Many forget that he only completed 11 of them. That puts him at a 22% completion rate, far lower than his career average 35% takedown completion rate. After rewatching this fight and putting that stat in context I have to think Merab’s win was mainly a result of him hurting Yan’s legs early so the Russian couldn’t stay away from Merab to set his pace nor distance.

Their second fight would start much different.

Merab and Yan last fought in December 2025. Yan was coming off of a dominant win over Marcus McGhee and Merab was trying to become the first champion to defend a UFC belt four times in a single calendar year.

The first round started much slower the second time around. Merab shot a takedown within the first 30 seconds of their first fight. This time? Merab shot his first takedown around 3 minutes in.

Yan was doing a good job sliding away from Merab while pumping long punches. Merab was happy to box with him until Yan shot a right through his face.

Merab ended the round without scoring a single takedown and only two leg kicks. Yan was setting the distance and pace for a painful fight.

Merab was credited with more than 90 seconds of control time in the first round but he was still fighting on Yan’s terms. Then Yan added insult to injury.

We’re two rounds into the second fight. Yan has hurt Merab, countered his best weapon, and avoided the thing that took him out last time. The leg kicks.

You’ll know that Merab has one glaring weakness if you’re familiar with his career. Body shots. He’s been hit and hurt there on several occasions in separate fights.

Merab completed more takedowns in this round than any other. But it didn’t do deter Yan’s body kicking.

Before I rewatched this fight I remembered Yan hitting Merab’s body again in the fourth. But almost immediately prior to Yan placing a hook on Merab’s liver, he wobbled Merab with a right hand.

Yan has taken command of the center of the cage. Merab can’t go forward without running into Yan’s hands. And when Merab gives ground, Yan hits his body more with his left leg.

Everyone watching this fight knew Merab was down. He needed a finish to keep his belt. He responded appropriately by throwing more strikes in this round than any other, but that only gave Yan room to kick through his guts.

Merab still managed to win at least one round on every judge’s scorecard after getting hurt several times. You have to wonder how this impacts their game plans going into this trilogy fight.

It’s hard to pick against Yan after rewatching both of these fights.

Merab doesn’t have the fight finishing power to threaten Yan, and he hurt Merab several times during their last fight. Plus Merab’s game is so cardio dependent that I can’t imagine it ages well. Every day that delays this trilogy probably works in favor of Yan. You also need to point out the major factor that’s outside both of their control. Cage size.

The first fight was at the UFC Apex. That means they fought in a smaller cage. That smaller cage forced these men to collide more frequently with punches, kicks, and grappling exchanges. That favors Merab. Their rematch will be in a full sized octagon so Yan will have room to move around and reset off of the fence.

The only way I see Merab taking this is if he can get to Yan’s legs early to win the first few rounds and wear Yan out for the championship minutes. But even that strategy depends on the judges favoring the grappler which they haven’t been doing lately. All signs point to Yan retaining.

But that doesn’t make for a good story.

I can’t help but think that Merab is going to look fresher this time around. He’s had nearly 10 months to rest and recover for this fight. A fresher Merab won’t go down easy, so we’ll be here next week to point out what he did to cap off the third fight as this chapter of bantamweight’s best trilogy wraps up.

Earlier this year I did a preview on the man that many think is the future of the 135 division if not the entire sport. Asaf “The Honeybadger” Choporuv. After that preview Choporuv added another first round finish to his record. Check it out.

Choporuv was signed to the UFC after this win and he is debuting this weekend! If you want to learn why every hardcore fan is so high on him read this paid article 👇