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First Things First

This weekend's historic UFC card pits two featherweight fan favorites against each other. Brian Ortega's classic Gracie jiu-jitsu is taking on Diego Lopes's modern dynamism. Today I want to talk about how their grappling matches up.

Apologies for not sending this on Tuesday. I was returning from a wedding. Between that and running my new gym (!!!) I couldn't write before then.

Featherweight Fan Favorites

This Saturday is UFC Noche. Many fans are calling it a puzzling event.

This is the second UFC Noche card. They were initially conceived as a tribute to Mexico's fighting culture. But then Dana White decided to host the event at The Sphere and the production kind of ran away from them.

To offset the costs of this new venue, the UFC secured Saudi sponsorship. Then they slapped a marquee title fight onto the top of the event to make the card more impressive on paper.

Now, instead of a tribute to Mexican fighting culture, we’re getting the Saudi sponsored “Riyadh Season Presents UFC Noche”. Despite the circumstances of how we got here, some of the fights are straight up electrifying.

Midway through the main card, surging Diego Lopes will challenge veteran favorite Brian Ortega. Both are known for their fearless head first style. Lopes and Ortega’s combined record has 41 wins with 33 finishes—an impressive 80% finish rate. But where they really sine is on the floor.

60% of these men’s finishes are submissions. It’s not just that they can finish their opponent, but, how they navigate through grappling exchanges that intrigues me. Yes, they’re both Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belts. The way they move on the floor is almost alien to one another.

Technical Takeaways

Ortega's Old School Skills

Brian Ortega has been in the UFC for over a decade. He arrived with the nickname "T-City," a nod to his triangle chokes, and to this day half of his submission victories come from the triangle.

It's hard to find anything more emblematic of old-school jiu-jitsu than a well-executed triangle.

Traditional "Gracie jiu-jitsu" emphasizes postural control to prevent punches and uses the legs in guard to defend against larger, stronger opponents. Ortega's ability to constantly pull on posture has also yielded a formidable guillotine choke.

But when you actually watch Ortega’s grappling since joining the UFC you don’t see a guard maestro. You see an opportunistic action fighter that jumps on his opponent’s neck wherever he can find it.

This isn’t a sleight against Ortega’s skills. Frankly anyone that can pull off submissions in the UFC regularly is a good grappler. This is to say that having a good old school guard just isn’t the best way to fight in today’s UFC.

Playing guard against another professional fighter with strong posture is hard. And it only gets harder as the fight goes on and both fighters start to sweat.

In a way, this goes hand in hand with the leg locking revolution of this past decade or so.

Generally, when you play guard, your opponent will stand up to get more mobile, build a strong posture, and push you away from them. As you lose control of their torso, their legs become more accessible. If you can entangle them to trip them up, you can more easily wrestle up to sweep and get off the bottom. This leads us right into why I’m so high on Diego Lopes.

Lopes's Modern Approach

While Ortega embodies "pure" jiu-jitsu, Diego Lopes's veins run with Brazilian jiu-jitsu pedigree. Before joining the UFC, Lopes was actively competing in professional jiu-jitsu events. He's the current jiu-jitsu coach of women's flyweight champion Alexa Grasso, and his uncle holds a coral belt. Grappling success is in his DNA.

Though Lopes has more professional fights than Ortega, he's only been in the UFC for just over a year. In that short time, he's amassed a 4-1 record with 3 finishes. His sole loss came as a late replacement against the undefeated powerhouse Movsar Evloev. Even in his Contender Series fight he showed rare skill and fluidity.

I know Lopes didn’t finish Brito. That’s not the point.

What matters is Lopes’s use of submissions nullifies his opponents’ attacks and because he attacks upper body and lower submissions he’s never out of options. Just watch how he flies from a kimura counter to a knee bar attempt below.

But it's not just about attacking the legs. He's perpetually in motion. Lopes's fluid transitions from position to position allows him to constantly threaten.

The more I analyze it, the more I'm convinced that Lopes's style is a direct counter to Ortega's offense.

New Answers to Old Questions

A misguided debate rages online questioning the effectiveness of modern "sport" jiu-jitsu compared to traditional Gracie jiu-jitsu. Critics argue that the new techniques aren't as practical and that old-school practitioners can outperform any modern sport grappler.

This reasoning is flawed from the outset.

Modern "sport" grappling is built on the foundation of old-school techniques. The new approach addresses challenges posed by traditional methods.

Lopes's lightning-fast joint locks have evolve from the old-school foundation that Ortega champions. Ignoring new techniques only leaves one vulnerable to them.

Simply put, Lopes has more tools at his disposal, from ground to standing. In an offense heavy sport like MMA, that can only be a benefit. Activity is scored and defense is its own reward that judges don’t seem to care about.

Beyond his advanced grappling skills, Lopes towers over Ortega with a three-inch advantage in both height and reach. He also hits harder than most at 145. Half of Lopes's UFC wins come from strikes in the first two minutes.

While Ortega has heart, he's prone to taking damage. His toughness has often allowed him to claw back into fights using jiu-jitsu. But what happens when Ortega faces a larger opponent who hits hard and possesses grappling skills that are at least on par with his?

I'm not optimistic about Ortega's chances in this fight. Are you?

However, all hope isn't lost. Ortega has shown renewed focus on Lopes's weakness: wrestling. This could be Ortega's path to victory.

If Ortega can navigate past Lopes's punches to clinch and secure takedowns without getting entangled in unfamiliar scrambles, he might prevail. But that's a tall order.

We’ll be here next week to breakdown this fight and any other interesting action from UFC Noche.

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