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FIRST THINGS FIRST
Welcome to Open Note Grappling.
Every Tuesday morning I send out a breakdown of the best combat sports action. In less than 10 minutes you'll learn how the top fighters win and anything else fighters, martial artists, and fight fans need to know.
Merab Dvalishvili, the man most likely to win 2025’s Fighter of the Year, is rematching a former champion this weekend. The challenger, Petr Yan, has a straight forward shot at winning this one.
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Now let’s get into it.
What's In Today's Letter?
YAN CAN STAY SAFE:
What Petr Yan Did Well In Their First Contest
In March 2023 Merab Dvalishvili headlined his first UFC card against Petr Yan.
Merab was already known for having a freakish gas tank. He was averaging 2.2 takedowns per round going into the fight with Yan. Many wondered if that could hold up over 5 rounds, especially against the supremely skilled former champion Yan.
Yes. The result was 11 takedowns over 5 rounds. Another 2.2 takedowns per round.
You might look at that stat and think Yan has no shot in this fight. I have to disagree for a few reasons, the least of which being that Yan was able to stop 38 takedowns.
Yan prods with a jab. Merab feints a right, steps outside, and bends over to pick up a single leg. Yan starts pushing on Merab’s head and hands as he pulls his leg back. Merab is circling to keep Yan off balance. When he tries to swing Yan’s leg for the finish Yan slips away. Merab follows and lands a few punches.
Merab Dvalishvili - Petr Yan
This is one of the first grappling exchanges in the fight. They’re both dry and Merab still couldn’t hang on to Yan. It wasn’t an isolated incident either.
Merab throws a left and bends over to pick up a single. Yan puts his leg outside in between himself and Merab. Merab tries to trip Yan’s standing leg. No dice. He walks in to step in front of Yan and trip him. Yan pops up, leans on the fence, and fights Merab’s grip with his right. Yan digs a left underhook and uses it to get off the fence.
Merab Dvalishvili - Petr Yan
Okay so what’s going on here? For starters, Merab does his best work on the fence.
When Merab shoots he usually picks up a leg and push his opponent to the cage. Then he’ll circle, run the pipe, and try to trip them. But his wrestling can fall apart out in the open, particularly when he loses control of his opponent’s thigh. And this gets to a more fundamental piece of why Yan is able to defend these takedowns.
Generally when you shoot a takedown in wrestling you want to get your hips as close to your opponent’s as possible. That’ll allow you to move them, lift, and chain wrestle.
Conversely, when you’re all the way out on a single leg you need to get your opponent hopping so you can swing their leg around or trip the other foot. Think of how Islam Makhachev took down Dustin Poirier.
Islam grabs a single. Poirier pushes on Islam’s head to kill his posture. Islam cuts back and switches to the other leg. Poirier pushes Islam’s head away again. Islam steps out and back, lifting Poirier’s leg for the single leg whip. You’ll also hear this called a golf club swing finish.
Islam Makhachev - Dustin Poirier
Islam was able to get on top of Poirier and submit him from here but only because Poirier stayed on his knees and Islam took a front head lock. It’s not like Poirier’s hips or back hit the mat.
Takedowns like this can be challenging in MMA because the fighters aren’t wearing shoes like they do in wrestling. That means when you’re on the end of a single leg your opponent can turn and kick out. Exactly like Poirier did to Islam earlier in this same fight!
Islam grabs a single. Poirier pushes Makhachev’s head down, turns away, and kicks out. Islam follows but Poirier gets arms inside to frame away. Islam tries hanging on to Poirier’s head and glove. Poirier separates them by cracking Islam with a big left.
Islam Makhachev - Dustin Poirier
Below you can see Yan doing a similar escape on Merab.
Yan hits Merab to the body with a left hook. Merab bounces out. Then he comes back with a right body kick and right straight. Merab throws another right to hide his level change so he can grab a single. Yan pushes Merab as he hops away to pull his leg out.
Merab Dvalishvili - Petr Yan
The beginning of that sequence holds the key to Yan’s chances.
BREAKING THE MACHINE:
Merab’s Achilles Heel Is Right In Front Of Us
As much as I love talking about grappling techniques and defensive nuances I’m not an idiot. Building a game plan around defending takedowns is not a winning strategy. Especially against Merab. It means you’re saying the fight starts with your opponent’s offense.
More practically, MMA is an offensive sport. Defense is a reward in and of itself. It doesn’t score.
There is one way to score big on Merab that has worked on him since the beginning of his UFC career through his title reign.
Saenz is backed on the cage. He gets a double collar tie to start kneeing Merab. Merab stops punching to cover his belly. Saenz throws more knees. Merab grabs a double. Merab contorts under Saenz to try dragging him down. Merab builds back up to trip Saenz. Saenz pulls Merab over to elevate him. Merab flips over Saenz. They stand so Merab grabs a rear body lock.
Merab Dvalishvili - Frankie Saenz
You might be thinking, surely Merab has gotten better since his first fight in the UFC. He certainly has gotten more skilled, but that doesn’t mean he’s grown an exoskeleton over his stomach. You can still hurt him if you hit him there.
Remember Merab’s first fight with Sean O’Malley?
O’Malley lands a front kick that makes Merab bend over in pain. Merab runs out to his right to keep distance. O’Malley stalks and Merab continues bouncing and giving ground. O’Malley cuts him off to try a spinning wheel kick. When O’Malley gets Merab to the fence again he lands another hard front kick.
Sean O’Malley - Merab Dvalishvili
No one should plan to win their fight against Merab with grappling. They can hardly hope to take rounds off of him. So starting a game plan from defending against Merab’s takedowns is just planning to make a loss look more competitive.
If anyone is going to beat this version of Merab they have to go after him early and hope to hurt him. And the surest way to do that seems to be by hitting his body.
Best case scenario you hurt Merab. Maybe you even finish him?
A more likely scenario is you chip away at the perpetual motion machine we call Merab.
EASIER SAID THAN DONE:
When Will Time Win?
When I started watching Merab’s old fights one question jumped out at me. How long can this fucker keep it up? So, I went to the UFC’s stats website to see what I could learn.
I was most curious about:
How many takedowns does Merab shoot?
How well does he control people?
I found that Merab is actually grappling less and less. In the chart below you’ll see data points each with their own trend line.
Takedowns - how many takedowns Merab shot in the fight
TD / Round - how many per round
Control Time % - how much control time Merab accumulated as a percent of total fight time
What you can see is that Merab’s grappling output is trending down.
The thing is, it gets worse when you remove the two outliers, his fights with Cory Sandhagen and Jose Aldo.
These data points are exactly why Merab’s opponents need to get to his body early. His grappling is starting to slow down and this will be his 5th fight in 15 months! Yan needs to help him out if he wants a shot at winning. He has to hit Merab’s body early to expedite his decreasing work rate.
I’m not saying it’s easy, but the solution can be that simple.
We know Merab is going to get on Yan’s legs, but we’ve already seen that Yan can stop the takedowns. If Yan can keep Merab’s hands on one leg and stay in the center of the cage he has a chance at winning. But every second that Merab puts Yan on the fence is one second closer to the champion retaining the belt.
HELP DESK UPDATES:
How Merab Is Making The Meta
Merab is a fascinating fighter to study because he didn’t start that way. His UFC entry started with a disappointing 2 losses.
Then Merab revamped his game. He added pieces of offense to better connect his game, won 14 fights in a row, and became the best bantamweight of all time. He also set the UFC takedown record in the process.
Most impressive to me is that Merab’s takedowns are defining fence wrestling as a unique grappling style. Merab is making the MMA grappling meta.
Merab steps in for a kosoto gake with the left leg. Sean leans forward. Merab hops behind O’Malley to take him down with a kosoto gari. Merab taps O'Malley while advancing on the floor. When O'Malley manages to turn away and get up, Merab hits a kosoto gake with his other leg to take O’Malley down again.
Merab Dvalishvili - Sean O’Malley
If you want to study Merab’s evolution to an all time great that’s defining MMA grappling you need to read my latest article on the Help Desk. On The Help Desk we also have:
A library of technique gifs
Analysis of classic fights with high level grappling
Studies on Merab, Islam Makhachev, Alexandre Pantoja, and others
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LINKS, INSTRUCTIONALS, AND MORE MATCHES TO STUDY:
Single Leg Defense + Their First Fight
Watch Merab Dvalishvili and Petr Yan’s first fight here.
We talked about defending single legs a lot today. If you want some resources I’d check these out:
Here is a playlist from my favorite wrestling technique channel
You can also watch Henry Cejudo explain single leg defense here
THE MOST IMPORTANT NEWS (you might have missed)
We got tons of fight announcements for the start of 2026. Ilia Topuria will not be fighting for at least the first quarter because he is dealing with family issues so Justin Gaethje will fight Paddy Pimblett for the UFC lightweight title on January 24th. Kaylar Harrison will fight Amanda Nunes on that card as well. If Pimblett manages to win the interim title he will only have beaten one fighter under 35 that’s still in the UFC. Genius matchmaking.
Tom Aspinall is suffering from Brown’s syndrome. That means his eyes can’t move up and he certainly can’t defend the heavyweight title any time soon.
Craig Jones was written up in the New York times which is a great sign for the sport of grappling’s growth.
Thanks for reading today. If you enjoyed this piece and want to read more about the top techniques, principles, and stories from the world of fighting upgrade to the Help Desk! The Help Desk has:
Detailed analysis of specific techniques, athletes, and themes
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New content added every week
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