Can Arman Tsarukyan Take The Title?

In partnership with

The UFC’s first PPV is this weekend. Islam Makhachev rematches Arman Tsarukyan to defend his title. We’re going to review the key moments in their first fight and examine if Tsarukyan really has a shot.

About six years ago, current lightweight champion Islam Makhachev was midway through his title march. After a surprising flash knockout in his second UFC fight, Makhachev regrouped and got back to work.

He went on a four fight winning streak with two decisions, one knockout, and a submission. Then he found it hard to find a fight. The UFC desperately wanted to push him and needed to match him for an upcoming card.

The UFC found a young Armenian man to debut against Makhachev. To put it more accurately, they thought they found a rabbit to drop into a tiger cage.

They didn’t realize that this rabbit would terrorize the tiger for 15 minutes straight, scramble all over the cage, and leave with a Fight of The Night bonus.

We know now Arman Tsarukyan is no rabbit. He’s a force of nature, an animatronic greek statue that can wrestle as well as anyone in the sport. He also flatline foes on the feet and floor.

This Saturday, Tsarukyan and Makhachev will try to recreate their magic for much higher stakes. They’re fighting for the lightweight title.

Today, we’re going to review the key action from their first meeting, one of the best displays of grappling you’ll ever see in the cage, look at some potential paths forward for the challenger, and say what he has to avoid.

Tsarukyan was not afraid of the moment. He went right at Makhachev and got in his face from the jump. After Tsarukyan slipped Makhachev rushed into the clinch and pushed Tsarukyan to the cage. Remarkably, Tsarukyan got off the fence but he was not safe.

Getting mounted by Makhachev in the first two minutes is usually a death sentence. Tsarukyan stayed patient and went back to his butterfly hooks to get up.

About a minute later Tsarukyan flipped the world and Makhachev upside down.

This is an important scramble. Makhachev’s best defensive wrestling comes from his whizzer. He can use it to stay up, like he does above, and throw opponents.

When the second round started Tsarukyan began shooting more aggressively.

Even though Tsarukyan didn’t effectively score a takedown he was able to smack Makhachev as the clinch broke. To me that is very very important.

As the round wore on Makhachev wore on Tsarukyan.

The kimura was not successful but Tsarukyan refused to lay flat. Again he used butterfly hooks to maintain some space so he could stand back up.

Tsarukyan was still game in the third. He shot low but Makhachev’s hips were too solid to be scored on.

In the last minute of the fifteen minute affair it finally looked like a classic Makhachev fight. He took Tsarukyan down, pressured him, and started riding Tsarukyan’s legs and wrists to hold him.

So, what hope does Tsarukyan have in the rematch?

Makhachev has become a finely tuned machine. He’s the best fighter in the sport right now and that’s because everything we saw in this fight has become sharper. He’s even added some tighter kicks and punches to sting people on the feet.

Personally, I think Makhachev has the best top half in MMA. You can read why here.

Tsarukyan has had his entire UFC career since their first fight. He’s grown from an athletic grappling freak into someone that can put their weight behind their strikes.

If I had to look to one area for a shot of Tsarukyan winning it would be, how well can Tsarukyan use his grappling in the middle of the cage.

I don’t mean outright taking Makhachev down. Frankly, as the first fight wore on, Tsarukyan started shooting from further and further away. As he did he ran into Makhachev’s hips worse every time.

If Tsarukyan is going to score he’s going to have to clip Makhachev when the two break clinches like above. Or he could fake takedown attempts to get Makhachev to drop his guard. Tsarukyan earned the best finish of his career by striking on the breaks of a would be clinch.

As it relates to the actual wrestling, Tsarukyan has been candid in interviews. He acknowledges that his coaches called for him to strike more but his inexperience moved him into ill advised, telegraphed takedown attempts.

That is not a way to beat Makhachev.

Tsarukyan’s best hope at a takedown is to get under Makhachev’s hips early and get his head outside. Look at this 1:1 comparison of Tsarukyan’s takedown attempt on Charles Oliveira. In the first, his head is outside and he can run through the finish. That’s not true in the second sequence.

In Makhachev’s first fight against Tsarukyan we saw what happens when he gets his opponent’s head inside and grab a whizzer. At best he stops the takedown. At worst he launches you.

Perhaps more worrying for Tsarukyan fans is his lack of discipline. He’s been caught with punches in between stances and lost position getting over eager in grappling exchanges.

Makhchev will eat someone alive for making mistakes like this. You give an inch and he settles in to smothering you.

If you’re betting on Tsarukyan you’re betting on a discipline that we haven’t seen from him in any of his fights. Can you really expect that for 25 minutes against the best fighter in the sort?

I just don’t know if you can bet on Tsarukyan to be perfect for 25 minutes.

I don’t care. I’m just happy the UFC is starting the year out with the best rematch you could make in the whole sport. And I’ll be here to analyze exactly how the history of the lightweight division was updated next week.

Can Makhachev defend his title a record fourth time to become maybe the best lightweight ever? Or can Tsarukyan take back the rematch to start his reign over the UFC’s most challenging division?

I can’t wait to find out.