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First Things First

On the day that the Craig Jones Invitational ends the ADCC World Championships will just be getting started. Today we’re going to do a holistic overview of all 5 of the men’s divisions to answer the question which champion has the best chance of repeating?

+99 KG

This division was supposed to be Gordon Ryan’s to lose. Then his stomach issue nearly ended his career again and he dropped out of the bracket.

Ryan will still be doing super fights at ADCC but this division is now much more interesting. Add the loss of Nicky Rodriguez, Victor Hugo, and the others that left for CJI and we have a wide open division.

If i had to to pick anyone I’d bet on Luke Griffith hosting his coming out party here.

His game is classic New Wave. Heel hooks, rear naked chokes, and horrific pressure. He even won the ADCC finals with a smother tap.

Like all of his New Wave stablemates, Griffith doesn’t deviate from his game plan. He’s patient until he create an opening. Then he pounces.

Duarte is the defending AdCC champion from the division down. Even with a size advantage this is a massive win for Griffith.

Veterans Vinny Magalhaes and Felipe Pena will be in this division as well. I don’t think you can feel confident picking them to win this grueling tournament at this stage of their careers.

Other compelling dark horses to watch would be wrestling stand out Heikki Jussila and the man he beat in his finals match, “Big” Daniel Manasoiu. Big Dan went on to qualify at a different ADCC Trials using a remarkably mobile game for a man his size. Both Big Dan and Griffith submitted everyone in their ADCC qualifying runs.

+99 KG is generally an odd division and this year is no exception. Former -88 KG competitor Mike Perez won the trials at +99 KG. He’ll be the smallest competitor in the division by a huge margin.

On the exact other end of the spectrum is Scottish powerlifter Mark Macqueen. I’m not sure how far he’ll go, you can’t help but be intrigued by a man that can squat over 800 pounds. Who’s going to be strong enough to move him?

-99 KG

The champion Kaynan Duarte is returning to defend his throne. You can say a lot about Duarte, but you can’t say he isn’t dominant when he’s on.

Duarte plays the position game better than most. He can score from standing, wrestle, up, and hold people down. Unfortunately for the viewer he doesn’t often do anything else. Duarte is one of 2 champions that didn’t submit anyone last ADCC.

Duarte is one of the most confusing athletes to watch. Some days he runs through everyone and looks like a world beater. He had a match with -88 KG champion Giancarlo Bodoni and that Bodoni never got a single attack going.

Then on other days, Duarte throws the match away like he did against Bodoni’s teammate Nicolas Meregali. At WNO Duarte took Meregali down early and decided to jump on an ankle lock.

After this sequence they both got back to their feet. From there, Meregali tired Duarte with wrestling and hand fighting before taking him down with a sequence oddly similar to what his teammate Luke Griffith used.

That match is remembered, rightly, as Meregali’s win but its Duarte’s loss as much as anything. Again, Danaher’s athletes don’t deviate from the game plan, and Meregali played well to tire Duarte out and submit him. For this reason alone Meregali is my alternative pick to win the division.

If you’re going to look at any potential interesting dark horses to shake things up, maybe you can say Pixley because of the style he brings.

Pixley has experience wrestling on the big stage. He was an NAIA wrestling champion and he definitely moves better on the feet than everyone in the division. You can read more about what makes his wrestling interesting here.

If I had to bet, it would be either Duarte or Meregali with the win.

-88 KG

The returning -88 KG champion Bodoni had the best ADCC run last time. I know -77 KG Kade Ruotolo submitted everyone and became the youngest to ever win, but Bodoni’s wins were more impressive.

Bodoni took out the former ADCC World Champion, Matheus Diniz; IBJJF Gi and No Gi World Champion, Lucas Barbosa; and another former IBJJF World Champion, Isaque Bahiense. He even submitted three of his four matches, and was about a minute away from submitting the 4th.

Aside from Bodoni’s submission skills, what bodes well for him at ADCC is his wrestling and counter wrestling.

Bodoni’s game is built for the long haul. Yes he can submit people, but he never rushes. He constantly snaps on his opponent’s posture so he can exhaust them.

You really can’t say this enough about Bodoni and the rest of his New Wave teammates. They never rush the game plan. That brings me to why Bodoni has a serious chance of getting upset this weekend.

Pedro Marinho is doing -88 KG this time. Marinho is just near impossible to move. He and Bodoni have had several matches and Marinho has had the edge on him recently.

Because of how hard he is to score on, Marinho is a live dog in this bracket. Another interesting competitor to watch in this division is a man that plays nothing like Marinho. Taylor Pearman.

Pearman won his spot at the ADCC Worlds by submitting everyone in his Trials bracket. He has a unique way of getting to outside heel hooks that blends several distinct techniques together.

Every year ADCC has one or two break out submission stars. Pearman can be that guy this year. You can read more about Pearman’s unique style here.

-77 KG

CJI absolutely decimated -77 KG. With the champion Kade Ruotolo leaving the event I think you have to pick Mica Galvao to win.

Galvao has been on a tear since the last ADCC. He has not lost to anyone in his weight class in two years and he’s only been submitted once as a black belt. Below you can see Galvao dominating another ADCC competitor PJ Barch at WNO.

Galvao’s last ADCC wasn’t without controversy though. He beat another returning medalist, Dante Leon, thanks to some scoring confusion.

After the match it was revealed Galvao’s turtling stopped the score and Leon should not have been given 2 points. How differently would Leon have spent the last minute if he knew he needed to score?

Another interesting dark horse for this event is Jonatas Gracie. He’s not the most active but he’s powerful and near impossible to score on like Marinho.

-66 KG

66 KG will be the major division this year. Most of the competitors are comparatively small so none jumped to CJI. With this division in tact, you might be looking at the previous winner, Diogo Reis, as a shoo-in to repeat.

Reis seems to understand the rules better than most of the competitors. His game was adopted flawlessly for this submission wrestling tournament and all of his wins came from superior wrestling.

You could say Reis’s wins were the tightest of the tournament. He didn’t score single submission last ADCC. Add who he’s competing against and I’m hesitant to pick Reis to repeat. If I had to pick a winner in this ultra tight bracket I’d choose Diego “Pato” Oliveira.

Pato has a recent win over Reis, and a few other ADCC competitors, so I think you have to favor him now. Below you can see Pato submit Reis’s former teammate and fellow -66 KG competitor Fabricio Andrey.

Pato even went up in weight to take out -77 KG ADCC competitor Dante Leon.

Another one to keep your eye on who’s division is almost opposite Pato’s is Dorian Olivarez. He has the best wrestling in the division full stop.

Olivarez is just a teenager still so I think he’s probably too green. He also found himself fighting out of too many triangles at the ADCC trials for me to feel comfortable about his chances against these world class guards.

In reviewing matches and preparing for this article one thing stands out. ADCC is unlike any grappling tournament in the world. The tough scoring, the grueling time periods, and intensity of the atmosphere forces people to fight with an extra gear.

We’ll be here next week to analyze who wrote their name in the history books and how they did it.

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